Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim may be the closest thing to a sports version of Freakonomics.
Moskowitz was a Booth Professor of Finance at time of publication. Today he teaches at the Yale School of Management. Jon Wertheim holds a law degree from the University of Pennsylvania and is Executive Editor at Sports Illustrated
As we headed into the Easter weekend, the NFL virtual draft was the only sports headline. Coronavirus shut down all sports recently.
Scorecasting it’s worth noting, reveals the recent NFL draft number one picks, turn out equal to a number ten pick regarding rookie performance.
Yet the money NFL teams waste on top picks should change. Scorecasting reviewed the signing bonuses of Ryan Leaf and Sam Bradford, top busts from the NFL draft. Actually the Leaf vs. Payton Manning draft reversal remains popular with sports fans even today.
For all the cable sports hype regarding player performance leading up to the draft, Moskowitz and Wertheim separate the signal to noise ratio very efficiently.
The hours (upon hours) of endless player and coaching interviews, season hi-lights showcasing how each team should draft the data reveals is only good for … selling commercials. Actually fans should wise up and gain some hours back in their lives.
Scorecasting also addresses sports officials, who are subject to human behavior. Some referees can rightly change a game or swallow their whistle. Mike Carey‘s story at Super Bowl 42 focused on Eli Manning to David Tyree’s famous catch. The NFL allowed Mike interviews about the greatest play in Superbowl history as Manning’s progress looked to be stopped.
Yet this contrasts the 2009 US Open judge Shino Tsurubuchi. Jon interviewed Tsurubuch about the foot fault and fallout from Serena’s disqualification.
A perfect example of how sport, (even the USTA) wants referees to give star players a pass on rule violations. Jon approached the USTA about the story….they refused to even say the line judge’s name.
No human behavior and sports fans story can be complete without analytics that prove referees favor home teams. Regardless of sport, Moskowitz and Wertheim provide data, a lot of data actually to show how fans influence calls. The amount of baseball data is rather staggering to consider. And after instant replay started, NFL home teams dramatically lost fumble recovery calls previously owned by the home team.
Soccer stadium crowds have the same influence. Scorecasting proves German soccer matches played in track and field stadiums, where track lanes provide a physical buffer to fan seating removes the home field advantage. The deep dive on data reveals unique human behavior depending upon the distance between screaming fan and referee.
Scorecasting carves out chapters on Michael Jordan’s defense wins championships chant, how Tiger Woods plays like us duffers, and a very interesting chapter on how Mike McCoy helped Dallas draft up and help Jimmy Johnson win Super Bowls with a unique formula (a secret no more) of trading up on draft day.
The Harry Walker Agency Speakers Bureau: Tobias Moskowitz – What Can Sports Teach Us About Business?
Tobias Moskowitz: Asset Pricing and Sports Betting at the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute: