Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by noted authors Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass Sunstein. Noise is simply random, unpredictable decision making that cannot be explained. At the same time, is not accountable. This is very perplexing today.
At the same time, this is not easy to fully understand. Here is a good outline provided by the book:
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients — or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime.
Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants — or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint.
Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
As a result, it is amazing to understand how and why people from all walks of life make really bad judgements. The fact that it can be quantified and even controlled offers us hope. However, based upon our crazy world today it only offers hope.
How many times have you found yourself impacted by Noise?
Sections that certainly stick most with organizations is within their hiring process. The authors really hit a home run here. Based upon their research and insights, this is worth the price of admission alone. Issues like prejudice are actually bias. When assessing decisions that go wrong, noise is the standard deviation of errors, while bias is the mean itself.
