The Premonition: A Pandemic Story by Michael Lewis. A tough, certainly insightful look at men and women who understood and directly confronted the pandemic at the beginning. At the same time, they ran into bureaucratic roadblocks. Their efforts to save the country is the story of this book.
For instance, as early as January 2020, Dr. Charity Dean, the assistant director of the California Department of Public Health in 2020. She certainly understood the coming pandemic and began warning California State officials. Surprisingly, Charity Dean was even prohibited from publishing the word “pandemic” in her research reports. Furthermore, as stunning as it may seem, her boss and the state locker her out of planning meetings.
Dr. Carter Mecher, senior medical advisor to the Veterans Administration initially helped craft the Bush Administration’s pandemic response plan. As a result, at the very beginning stages in January 2020, he observed similarities to the 1918 Influenza flu. Indeed, Carter was the early advocate to shut down schools to reduce spread. Tragically, he lost his own mother to COVID.
At the same time, Joe DeRisi PhD, a biochemist at UC San Francisco was involved in the development of the ViroChip. This is used to rapidly identify viruses in bodily fluids. He led a team to develop a very early COVID-19 testing facility at the outbreak of pandemic.
Dr. Richard Hatchett an epidemiologist was another who warned early on about the coming pandemic. He also contributed to the Bush era pandemic response plan. This book is a sobering reality of what could have been. These medical professionals were stopped by the same system they were trying to save. Michael certainly makes it very clear the US does not have a healthcare system.
Tipping point ignored
Surprisingly, President George W. Bush read The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History. As a result, he triggered a plan to confront the next pandemic with Rajeev Venkayya, Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher. This plan continued through the Obama Administration, but stopped under Trump.
CDC takes the hardest hit
By February 2020 they certainly understood how the pandemic was going to strike America. The Federal government and the CDC take a series of critical, justified hits by stopping their work. In addition, Federal government positions of leadership within the Trump Administration are political appointees without any understanding of risk management. This began in the Reagan Administration.
Risk Management 101
In fact, twenty years ago we concluded that the 9/11 attacks were a result of our “lack of imagination” to vulnerabilities in protecting our country. Key medical professionals held that imagination to protect the country. They were ignored for multiple reasons. Michael writes how the government fumbled the very basics of risk management to this pandemic and the global impact:
They decided that their hides would be saved by the countries that had bungled their pandemic response. They’d be able to point to them and say, “Look! That’s what would have happened to us!” They never imagined that other countries would use the United States to demonstrate their own counterfactual. “We are the bad example for the rest of the world,” said Carter. “That’s what is so embarrassing.
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Dr. Mecher clearly understood America likes to repeat our history. By studying the the 1918 flu epidemic, Carter Mecher forecasted the super-spreader event in Philadelphia was too little too late. For this purpose, just one military parade led to 12,000 deaths. Accordingly, these events are repeating today. Above all, thousands of children are now sick via the Delta coronavirus variant. In March 2020, the initial threat was certainly focusing upon the elderly. At that time, children were not a concerned age group.
In conclusion, very smart and creative medical professionals saw the pandemic coming. Multiple levels of government began stopping their job functions. I have read these other books by Michael Lewis: The Big Short, Flash Boys, Moneyball, and The Undoing Project. The Premonition is a very frustrating, but necessary book to read.
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